A Oxford and Yale study has found that there is a 50 percent chance of AI outperforming humans in job performance by the year 2062.
A group of researchers from Oxford and Yale University have released their most recent research showing that there is a 50 percent chance AI may outperform humans in every job in 2062. The research shows that it will reshape transportation, health, finance, science, as well as the military. The researchers conducted a survey, drawing on the top 352 AI researchers’ expertise.
On top of AI’s outperforming humans in every job, they are also predicted outperforming us at foreign language translation by 2024, at writing essays for highschool by 2026, at truck driving by 2027, at retail jobs by 2031, writing best-sellers by 2049 and performing surgery by 2053.
Researchers on the Findings
Katja Grace, from Berkeley’s Research Institute for Machine Intelligence, and the lead researchers in the study, said: “We are interested in when powerful AI will be developed, and what will happen as a result.”
“So we asked directly about when ‘human-level’ AI might be developed in a few different ways, and also about things that indirectly bear on when we expect powerful AI, but which we think researchers may know more about, like acceleration in their own field.”
“We also asked them about what they thought would happen, both in terms of how good or bad it might be overall, and in terms of things like whether it will affect technological progress in a big way. We found a wide diversity of views, but with enough opinion finding relatively near dates and relatively high levels of risk as plausible that we think this warrants more attention.”
Previous Warnings on AI
Several well known scientists have been known to frequently warn the public against the dangers of AI, including Stephen Hawking, Elon Musk and dozens of others.
Stephen Hawking, in a response to a reddit thread, once compared Artificial Intelligence to humans stepping on ants.
“The real risk with AI isn’t malice but competence.” he said. You’re probably not an evil ant-hater who steps on ants out of malice, but if you’re in charge of a hydroelectric green energy project and there’s an anthill in the region to be flooded, too bad for the ants. Let’s not place humanity in the position of those ants.”
In January 2015, a group of top AI experts signed an open letter calling for extensive research into AI before pursuing it. “Because of the great potential of AI, it is important to research how to reap its benefits while avoiding potential pitfalls.” the letter said.